![]() Check back in a couple of weeks when I update this post with April 15 numbers (more accurate than April 1 and Max SWE numbers). Similar to the last two summers, don't expect Yosemite Creek to be running into August but the Glacier Point and Tioga Pass Roads should be open for longer than usual (unless winter arrives early). The peak flow for the Merced River at the Pohono Bridge (which can serve as a proxy for the nearby creeks) on average occurs on May 27 (probably nearer to late-April or early-May for this year). Plan on arriving almost a month earlier than an average year if you want to see the waterfalls during decent flows. ![]() Should these predictions prove accurate, it will be a third-straight early opening for both roads and the Yosemite waterfalls will again quickly dissipate. Below I've summarized the respective opening dates for the two roads ( source ): According to the station SWE values, this year is most similar to 1994 (DAN, VLks, and STR) and 2007 (VLks, TUM, and STR) as well as 1990 (DAN and VLks), 1988 (VLks and TUM), and 2012 (VLks and TUM). With ~39% of average snowpack in the central Sierra (including Yosemite) as of April 1, this year is most similar to 2012 (43%) and 1990 (45%). I'll take that into consideration in my estimate. However, April 1 seems a little early to start plowing the Glacier Point Road. The April 15 date is pretty typical, so there shouldn't be any complications related to that or government sequestration this year. Click the graph for a larger version.Yosemite announced that plowing would begin on Glacier Point Road on April 1 and on Tioga Pass Road on April 15. The graph shows average and current (up to April 3) SWE values for the stations in Yosemite. I still looked at data from Virginia Lakes Ridge ( VLks ) and Dana Meadows ( DAN -see the original blog) but also added Tuolumne Meadows ( TUM ) to the mix. However, I was able to find another station (Ostrander Lake- STR ) and as it turns out this station predicts opening dates a little better than Tenaya Lake. This year, I used some different stations because the most reliable (Tenaya Lake- TNY ) stopped recording data sometime in February. For the past two years the predictions have been pretty close (here's last year's blog ). See my original blog regarding my calculation methods. Estimates range from 29% in the northern Sierra to 39% in the central Sierra and 32% in the southern Sierra. Another round of April 1 snow surveys is now complete and the numbers are not good. ![]()
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